ATO Research

02Risk & quality

• Consistency 20.0/20 — ATO has raised or maintained its dividend for 38 consecutive years, qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ year streak). The dimension caps at 10 years, so 38 years comfortably clears the ceiling for full credit.
• Payout safety 20.0/20 — ATO returns 46.1% of GAAP earnings to shareholders as dividends — well inside the comfort zone. The 80% mark is where most analysts start watching payouts closely; anything above 100% would mean the dividend is being funded from cash or borrowing rather than current profit.
• Moat 19.6/20 — Scores how protected ATO's earnings stream is from competition. Operating in Utilities, ATO benefits from the kind of brand pricing power, regulatory position, or scale that lets margins hold up through economic cycles. Cyclical or commodity-driven sectors typically score in the single digits here.
• Growth rate 4.3/20 — ATO has raised the dividend about 6.5% per year over the past 5 years — modest but steady. This kind of mid-single-digit pace is typical for mature, large-cap dividend payers running at moderate payout ratios; growth-tilted dividend ETFs (think SCHD constituents) typically target the 15-20% range.
• Balance sheet 8.9/20 — A composite of ROE and inverse leverage. A low score here can mean weak return-on-equity, high debt, or both — for ATO, 9.6% ROE and 65% debt-to-equity. Doesn't directly threaten the current dividend if cash flow is healthy, but it does limit how much room the company has for future hikes or to absorb a downturn.

03Price reference

Below are statistical price references from the last 5 years of trading, anchored to historical drawdown events. They describe where the price has been — not where it should be.