DUK Research
Duke Energy Corporation
3.52%
Forward yield
$4.260 / yr per share
Yield percentile (5y)
P 31
3.4% (P10)3.7% (med)4.0% (P90)
Quality score
79/100
Good · Moderate payout risk
Annual / share
$4.260
Quarterly · next ex-date 08-14 (69d)
vs 5y P90 reference
+16%
$121.09 vs $101.23 (5y P90 price)
Refreshed 2026-06-06Data coverage High — 44y history
01Fundamentals
DUK demonstrates strong dividend continuity with 44 consecutive years of payments, but its negative Free Cash Flow of $1.694B raises significant sustainability concerns. Despite a 65.2% payout ratio, the inability to cover its dividend from operations makes it an unsuitable income investment.
Bull caseDUK's dividend is highly secure with a 65.2% payout ratio and an excellent 44-year streak of consecutive payments, supported by a 9.661% ROE.
Bear caseThe primary risk to dividend sustainability is DUK's negative Free Cash Flow of $1.694B, indicating the $4.26 TTM annual dividend is not fully covered by operational cash flow.
02Risk & quality
| GAAP payout ratio | Moderate · 65.2% |
| Overall quality score | 79 / 100 · Good |
Score breakdown — five dimensions, each /2020 + 20 + 19 + 3 + 3 = 79
20.0/20
Consistency
20.0/20
Payout safety
19.2/20
Moat
↓
2.8/20
Growth rate
3.2/20
Balance sheet
- Consistency 20.0/20 — DUK has raised or maintained its dividend for 44 consecutive years, qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ year streak). The dimension caps at 10 years, so 44 years comfortably clears the ceiling for full credit.
- Payout safety 20.0/20 — DUK pays out 65.2% of GAAP earnings as dividends — still inside the safe band, with some headroom before reaching 80%, the level commonly flagged as strained. Manageable as long as earnings hold up.
- Moat 19.2/20 — Scores how protected DUK's earnings stream is from competition. Operating in Utilities, DUK benefits from the kind of brand pricing power, regulatory position, or scale that lets margins hold up through economic cycles. Cyclical or commodity-driven sectors typically score in the single digits here.
- Growth rate 2.8/20 — DUK has raised the dividend about 4.2% per year over the past 5 years — modest but steady. This kind of mid-single-digit pace is typical for mature, large-cap dividend payers running at moderate payout ratios; growth-tilted dividend ETFs (think SCHD constituents) typically target the 15-20% range.
- Balance sheet 3.2/20 — A composite of ROE and inverse leverage. A low score here can mean weak return-on-equity, high debt, or both — for DUK, 9.7% ROE and 162% debt-to-equity. Doesn't directly threaten the current dividend if cash flow is healthy, but it does limit how much room the company has for future hikes or to absorb a downturn.
03Price reference
$10,000at current price →$352/ yr in dividends
Math: 3.52% forward yield. Historical 5y DGR is 4.2%/yr — past growth does not guarantee future results.
Below are statistical price references from the last 5 years of trading, anchored to historical drawdown events. They describe where the price has been — not where it should be.
$85.37
$101.23
$121.09
5y P10
5y P90
Now
| Current price | $121.09 |
| 5y P90 reference (high-yield 10% tail) | $101.23 — 16.4% lower |
| 5y P10 reference (low-yield 10% tail) | $85.37 — 29.5% lower |
| 5y max observed yield (at P10 price) | 4.6% |
| Annual dividend (frozen forward) | $4.260 / share · 3.52% yield |
Historical anchor · 2020-03 COVID Sell-off
Low $50.15 · drawdown 2320 days · yield reached 6.0%
COVID pandemic triggered global liquidity panic, market plunged 34% in 3 weeks
Important — this is reference data, not investment advice.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.