ITW Research
Illinois Tool Works Inc.
2.55%
Forward yield
$6.440 / yr per share
Yield percentile (5y)
P 98
2.0% (P10)2.2% (med)2.5% (P90)
Quality score
82/100
Good · Moderate payout risk
Annual / share
$6.440
Quarterly · next ex-date 09-29 (115d)
vs 5y P90 reference
-2%
$252.72 vs $258.86 (5y P90 price)
Refreshed 2026-06-06Data coverage High — 40y history
01Fundamentals
ITW is a strong income candidate, driven by its 40 consecutive years of dividend growth and 14.02% 5Y dividend growth rate. The current 2.5207% yield, while below SGOV, is secure with a 58.77% payout ratio and supported by a robust 96.848% ROE. Despite a 2.8x Debt/Equity ratio, the company's dividend safety and growth justify ownership.
Bull caseThe company boasts a 40-year consecutive dividend streak and a strong 5Y dividend growth rate of 14.02%, backed by a robust 96.848% ROE.
Bear caseThe 2.8x Debt/Equity ratio, exceeding 200%, indicates higher financial leverage for an industrial company despite a healthy 58.77% payout ratio.
02Risk & quality
| Payout ratio | Moderate · 67.3% |
| Overall quality score | 82 / 100 · Good |
Score breakdown — five dimensions, each /2020 + 20 + 12 + 9 + 10 = 82
20.0/20
Consistency
20.0/20
Payout safety
11.6/20
Moat
↓
9.4/20
Growth rate
10.0/20
Balance sheet
- Consistency 20.0/20 — ITW has raised or maintained its dividend for 40 consecutive years, qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ year streak). The dimension caps at 10 years, so 40 years comfortably clears the ceiling for full credit.
- Payout safety 20.0/20 — ITW pays out 67.3% of free cash flow as dividends — still inside the safe band, with some headroom before reaching 80%, the level commonly flagged as strained. Manageable as long as earnings hold up.
- Moat 11.6/20 — Scores how protected the earnings stream is from competition. ITW's position in Industrials earns it a mid-tier score — some defensibility, but not the wide moat of dominant consumer-staples or regulated-utility names.
- Growth rate 9.4/20 — ITW's dividend grew about 14.0% per year over 5 years — solid by absolute standards, but a notch below the 15-20% pace seen at growth-oriented dividend payers (think SCHD constituents). Familiar pattern for established staples already paying out most of what they earn — the runway for further hikes naturally narrows once payout ratios climb.
- Balance sheet 10.0/20 — A composite of return-on-equity and inverse leverage. ITW's 96.8% ROE and a 2.8× debt-to-equity ratio leaves this dimension in the middle of the pack — neither flagged for weakness nor in the financial-flexibility tier of top-scoring names.
03Price reference
$10,000at current price →$255/ yr in dividends
Math: 2.55% forward yield. Historical 5y DGR is 14.0%/yr — past growth does not guarantee future results.
Below are statistical price references from the last 5 years of trading, anchored to historical drawdown events. They describe where the price has been — not where it should be.
$234.18
$258.86
$252.72
5y P10
5y P90
Now
| Current price | $252.72 |
| 5y P90 reference (high-yield 10% tail) | $258.86 — -2.4% lower |
| 5y P10 reference (low-yield 10% tail) | $234.18 — 7.3% lower |
| 5y max observed yield (at P10 price) | 2.8% |
| Annual dividend (frozen forward) | $6.440 / share · 2.55% yield |
Historical anchor · 2008-10 Global Financial Crisis
Low $17.21 · drawdown 19 days · yield reached 6.5%
Lehman collapse triggered global credit freeze; S&P fell ~50% peak-to-trough.
Important — this is reference data, not investment advice.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.