TRP Research
TC Energy Corporation
2.72%
Forward yield
$1.845 / yr per share
Yield percentile (5y)
P 16
2.1% (P10)4.2% (med)6.2% (P90)
Quality score
74/100
Good · Moderate payout risk
Annual / share
$1.845
Quarterly · next ex-date 09-29 (115d)
vs 5y P90 reference
+52%
$67.81 vs $32.92 (5y P90 price)
Refreshed 2026-06-06Data coverage High — 39y history
01Fundamentals
TRP presents a long dividend history with a 39-year consecutive streak and a robust 63.3% effective Free Cash Flow payout ratio. However, a high 166.505% Debt/Equity ratio and significant cross-validation warnings on future dividend yield, indicating a potential 2.29 percentage point drop from the 4.9717% TTM yield to 2.69%, signal substantial risk for income stability.
Bull caseTRP boasts 39 consecutive years of dividend payments, supported by $2,060,000,000 in Free Cash Flow and an effective 63.3% payout ratio, ensuring strong coverage for its $1.251 TTM annual dividend.
Bear caseThe balance sheet carries high leverage with a Debt/Equity of 166.505%, while cross-validation indicates a calculated forward dividend yield of 2.69% is 2.29 percentage points lower than the stored 4.9717% yield, posing a significant risk to future income expectations.
02Risk & quality
| Free-cash-flow payout ratio | Moderate · 63.3% |
| Overall quality score | 74 / 100 · Good |
Score breakdown — five dimensions, each /2020 + 20 + 14 + 1 + 4 = 74
20.0/20
Consistency
20.0/20
Payout safety
13.6/20
Moat
↓
1.2/20
Growth rate
3.8/20
Balance sheet
- Consistency 20.0/20 — TRP has raised or maintained its dividend for 39 consecutive years, qualifying as a Dividend Aristocrat (25+ year streak). The dimension caps at 10 years, so 39 years comfortably clears the ceiling for full credit.
- Payout safety 20.0/20 — TRP pays out 63.3% of free cash flow as dividends — still inside the safe band, with some headroom before reaching 80%, the level commonly flagged as strained. Manageable as long as earnings hold up.
- Moat 13.6/20 — Scores how protected the earnings stream is from competition. TRP's position in Energy earns it a mid-tier score — some defensibility, but not the wide moat of dominant consumer-staples or regulated-utility names.
- Growth rate 1.2/20 — TRP's dividend grew about 1.8% per year over the past 5 years — close to flat. Often signals a mature business that's prioritizing buybacks or balance-sheet protection over hikes, or one with limited reinvestment runway. The payout itself can still be safe; it's the trajectory that's stalled.
- Balance sheet 3.8/20 — A composite of ROE and inverse leverage. A low score here can mean weak return-on-equity, high debt, or both — for TRP, 11.3% ROE and 167% debt-to-equity. Doesn't directly threaten the current dividend if cash flow is healthy, but it does limit how much room the company has for future hikes or to absorb a downturn.
03Price reference
$10,000at current price →$272/ yr in dividends
Math: 2.72% forward yield. Historical 5y DGR is 1.8%/yr — past growth does not guarantee future results.
Below are statistical price references from the last 5 years of trading, anchored to historical drawdown events. They describe where the price has been — not where it should be.
$32.92
$32.92
$67.81
5y P10
5y P90
Now
| Current price | $67.81 |
| 5y P90 reference (high-yield 10% tail) | $32.92 — 51.5% lower |
| 5y P10 reference (low-yield 10% tail) | $32.92 — 51.5% lower |
| 5y max observed yield (at P10 price) | 7.3% |
| Annual dividend (frozen forward) | $1.845 / share · 2.72% yield |
Historical anchor · 2008-10 Global Financial Crisis
Low $10.80 · drawdown 37 days · yield reached 10.8%
Lehman collapse triggered global credit freeze; S&P fell ~50% peak-to-trough.
Important — this is reference data, not investment advice.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.
Quality scores, percentiles, and price references are statistical summaries of historical data computed by our research methodology from public market data, refreshed daily. They do not constitute a buy / sell / hold recommendation, do not account for your personal financial situation, tax bracket, or goals, and past performance does not predict future results. Consult a registered investment advisor before making investment decisions. divcalc.io is not a registered investment advisor.